Tidskriften Nature publicerar i dag en analys över hur mycket av världens olja, gas och kol som måste lämnas i marken om vi ska hålla uppvärmningen under två grader. Christophe McGlade och Paul Ekins vid University College London uppskattar att en tredjedel av världens oljereserver, hälften av gasreserverna, och 80 procent av kolet måste ligga orört, om vi ska en rimlig – eller i alla fall en 50 procent chans – att klara tvågradersmålet. Detta är globalt, och i förhållande till dagens reserver – alltså de fossila bränslen som idag är ekonomiskt lönsamma att producera.
Förutom reserverna finns de fossila resurser som potentiellt kan exploateras med nuvarande och framtida teknologi och utan hänsyn till ekonomiska förhållanden. Inkluderas dessa menar McGlade och Ekins att 67 procent av oljan måste stanna i marken.
Beräkningarna inkluderar även användningen av så kallad CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage) där koldioxiden fångas in och lagras vid förbränning. Utan framtida CCS-teknik är det ännu mindre av de fossila bränslena som får eldas upp.
Genom att anta att de fossila resurser som är billigast att extrahera utnyttjas först, så har forskarna använt datormodeller för att räkna ut vilka resurser som aldrig kommer att exploateras om vi lyckas begränsa den globala uppvärmningen. Bland annat kommer Kanada bara att exploatera en fjärdedel av sina oljereserver, som främst består av tjärsand (något som tydligt visar vilket dårskap det vore att bygga oljeledningen Keystone XL).
Modellerna visar också att okonventionell gas kommer att ha en större roll att spela än okonventionell olja, men främst i USA där produktionen av skiffergas redan är i full gång. I Europa kommer bara en dryg femtedel av den potentiella okonventionella gasreserven att exploateras.
Detta gör att det går att ifrågasätta exempelvis den brittiska regeringens tro på att fracking kommer att vara lösningen. Paul Ekins säger till The Independent att det är möjligt att en viss exploatering av skiffergas kommer att vara ekonomiskt försvarbart, men att i sådana fall måste Storbritannien avstå andra av sina fossila tillgångar. Uppenbarligen har han inte den brittiska regeringens öra, eftersom den parallellt med skiffergassatsningen försöker få igenom en lag som syftar till att maximera oljeproduktionen.
Innebär detta att diskussionen om oljetoppen är död? Inte riktigt. Christophe McGlade har tidigare argumenterat för att det inte går att analysera ett enskilt bränsle för att förutse framtida produktion, utan att det behövs ett systemperspektiv där såväl olja, gas och kol tas i beaktande, och där man tittar på både efterfrågan och produktion. McGlades slutsats är att eventuella policys för att minska koldioxidutsläppen har en större påverkan på den sammanlagda produktionen av fossila bränslen än fysiska begränsningar.
Han han har även argumenterat emot Uppsala-professorn Kjell Aleklett som har kritiserat det internationella energiorganet IEA för att överskatta framtida oljeproduktion. Samtidigt menar McGlade dock att IEA:s siffror över hur mycket oljereserver och potentiella resurser det finns är överdrivna. I Nature-studien räknar han och Ekins med att oljereserverna är 1 300 miljarder fat, medan IEA räknar med att de 1 700 miljarder fat.
I en föreläsning med rubriken ”Is Peak Oil Dead?” från början av 2014 (finns på youtube) säger Christophe McGlade att det verkar som vi att vi har nått slutet för den billiga oljan, men att världen har alldeles för mycket fossila bränslen för att vi ska kunna elda upp dem och samtidigt begränsa uppvärmningen
Foto: CGP Grey/CC
gjevhajs • 20 maj 2015 kl. 05:19
No short policy such as this can spell out all possible instances of material or behavior that we might deem to be a violation of our publishing standards, and we reserve the right to remove any material posted to the site. cheap air jordans Syrian authorities will allow citizens abroad, including refugees who fled
u gucci outlet online
鈥淲e deserved something from the game and we are disappointed,鈥?the striker admitted. oakley sunglasses outlet Gary Chisholm, Stagecoach North East鈥檚 engineering director, added: 鈥淲e are committed to developing our staff, and offering apprenticeship opportunities is a great way to bring young people into the company and nurture their skills from the outset of their professional career.
鈥淚n animation, it鈥檚 camera, action, lights,鈥?said director of photography Patrick Lin. coachoutlet.442ndrct.com It’s been a pleasure and honor to serve every citizen of Ozaukee County for 19 years, Wolfgram said late Tuesday. I wish my opponent well. p cheap air jordans
could knock them to the ground. In turn, Mrs Walker helped the family of Gavin Robinson, a 30-year-old who was killed by a single punch when he refused to give a man a cigarette in in 2008. Initially jailed for 18 months, Richard Wyatt was given three years after the family appealed against the verdict. Gavin鈥檚 sister, Alex Robinson- cheap jordans Jai, only 13 at the time, told the cameras about the eerie sil ence that now came from his big brother s bedroom.
n are receiving grants ranging from $75,000 $290,000. All New Jersey municipalities tory burch shoes outlet 鈥淭his is a positive sign that reflects the focus by a number of telcos on improving their customer service.鈥?katespadeoutlet.ideas-reaction.com
The Town Hall at was crowded on Saturday night when Miss Gertrude Bell, daughter of Sir Hugh Bell, delivered a lecture on the causes of the war. cheap jordan shoes Pisani, chief of Policy Planning Staff for the French PM, was unlucky to become a victim of the seismic European elections, but even without the Euro earthquake he was treading on shaky ground. http://coachoutlet.442ndrct.com
A line of Supreme Court precedent makes clear that districts drawn predominantly on the basis of race can only be justified by extraordinary circumstances. oakley glasses The proposed ballpark for the Triple-A Red Sox affiliate would sit on former highway land owned by the I-195 Redevelopment District Commission, which plans a public meeting Monday with state officials. y michael kors outlet online
Tues. Fwd; 1,726 sheep. Prime hoggs: Beltex to 229.3p; Texel to 214.5p; Char to 208.7p; Blackface to 195.5p; Mule to 186.4p; Jacob to185.6p; Suff to185.6p; Swale to 183.3p; Dutch Texel to 拢83.30; Blue-faced Leics to 拢79.80; Cheviot to 拢75.80; Jacob to 拢66.80. Cast ewes: Texel 拢116.50; Suff 拢116.50; Blue-faced Leics 拢114.50; Char 拢102.50; Mule 拢96.50; Rough Fell 拢84.50; Cheviot 拢80.50; Swale 拢76.50; Herdwick 拢73.50; Goat 拢54.50. Cast rams: Texel 拢111.50; Cheviot 拢110.50; Blue-faced Leics 拢95.50; Suff 拢90; Swale 拢65.50. oakley sunglasses And, says Bartlett, she鈥檚 determined to make it happen.
Make your resume sing. Write a couple of sentences about yourself and highlight your positives for the job for which you are applying. Showcase why you would be a great candidate for that specific position. tory burch shoes outlet The New York Times has , More than one out of every six black men who today should be between 25 and 54 years old have disappeared from daily life.
Q.I have a white hydrangea that doesn’t bloom. The plant is nice and green and looks healthy. The flower buds never open into flowers, but instead just turn to a sort of fuzz. Any ideas? toryburchoutlet.503ent.com Here are excerpts from the interview:
If Taylor does end up in the starting lineup, he will be on the court with the No. 2 pick in the June draft, Jabari Parker, and second-year Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo. michael kors outlet Cochrane took two unusual steps in establishing his mining village.
z When you see what is spent in overall building maintainence this is probably not a lot. Even the 拢80k of building supplies taken unnoticed by an employee recently gives an indication of the overall scale of what we are talking about. cheap jordan shoes a whole unit as to deal with judicial issues, and no one can perform alone.
If you live in Moscow long enough, you get used to dreadful service. The scowling cashiers, the flippant waiters everyone has their horror stories. But generally, you get over it. oakley sunglasses Home Depot: Free workshops for do-it-yourselfers of all ages and experience levels. Check the web for store locations and register online. x tory burch shoes outlet online
Preparing new cars for a dealer showroom 鈥?attention to detail – 拢40pw 锘?a href=http://coachoutlet.442ndrct.com/>coach outlet A. With a tablecloth, napkins with napkin rings, and fresh flowers.
e You may not post copyrighted material from another publication. (Link to it instead, using a headline or very brief excerpt.) gucci outlet online A vision in delicate blue, Tatiana tells us how she s actually dressed for work! I just got done so I swapped my heels for flats, she explains, and we think it s genius. She sports: dress, Miss Selfridge; blazer, Zara; flats, Michael Kors; and bag from Singapore. d
It was Walker鈥檚 elder brother Chris who first made a name for himself with Carnegie, but now jack is on the scene and he鈥檚 relishing being part of the international set-up. coach outlet uk The cassette player appears as a standard USB audio device under Windows. It runs on its own batteries so there’s no need for a separate power supply. kate spade outlet online
”This is what’s happening now, this is who’s playing,” he said, a mix of travelogue and music survey. He also wants to include as many bands as possible while keeping it punchy. coach outlet online She and three fellow mules all testified of being threatened with death if they refused to smuggle the drugs. y oakley sunglasses
A T Hedley cheap jordan shoes 鈥淚 don鈥檛 know if I鈥檓 going to call this a bad one,鈥?Harmsen said. 鈥淚鈥檓 going to call it a game we just had to learn and win differently. We didn鈥檛 shoot it exceptionally well, but we continued to play defense, get valued stops, and took pretty good care of the ball in the second half. It doesn鈥檛 matter right now, you just have to win by one and that鈥檚 what we鈥檙e trying to do.鈥?
might not offer a boardwalk or amusements, but the low-key Shore town does have bed and breakfasts, seasonal rentals and leisure walking paths that provide a relaxed beach experience. gucci outlet He jumped on that, but he was rapt after the race and that was the main thing. She hit the line hard and she’s fit and well. o tory burch shoes outlet online
Q: Would the local authorities still be responsibilities for roads in their areas? http://cheapjordans.jump-penang.org Favourite animal and why?